Wednesday, February 14, 2007

Oil-What a Difference A Month Can Make

Just one month ago President Bush marked Labor Day by promising to keep U.S. workers competitive in global markets and to reduce U.S. reliance on foreign oil. "Dependence on foreign oil jeopardized our capacity to grow," he noted.

Encouraging words yes, but hardly new. President Richard M. Nixon promised in 1971 to make the United States self-sufficient in energy by 1980. President Jimmy Carter promised in 1979 that the nation would "never again use more foreign oil than we did in 1977."

When times are tough, we look for alternatives. When times are rosy, we stick our head back into the oil sands.

Wall Street advanced Wednesday taking the Dow Jones industrial further into record high territory, as oil prices fell for a third straight day. The government surprised penny stock investors by reporting a rise in crude oil inventories.

Saudi Arabia also said the country wanted to keep oil prices low. "It looks like the petroleum data shows that there is more than enough oil to go around," mused one research analyst.

Oil prices settled at a seven-month low below $59 a barrel this week as rising global supplies, slack demand, and a mild Atlantic hurricane season forced geopolitical worries to the back burner.

"For the next three months, there is nothing in the fundamentals that is likely to support higher prices except an OPEC production cutback," predicted one energy analyst. Not surprisingly, OPEC's president said Thursday that the group is considering an emergency meeting to discuss the possibility of cutting output.

But fear not, Michael Lynch, President of Strategic Energy & Economic Research predicts that oil will fall to $45 per barrel by mid-2007 and could dip briefly into the $20s in 2008. Sometime next year, he expects we are going to see $1.95 price at the pumps.

While the idea of cheap oil is a godsend for most Americans, it does absolutely nothing to decrease our dependency on foreign oil. And by foreign oil, I'm referring to politically unstable areas such as the Middle East and Venezuela. For arguments sake, let's not refer to Canada's ubiquitous oil sands as "foreign".

Still, cheap oil puts the idea of alternative energy sources on the backburner...and out of the limelight for most investors. But insightful penny stock investors could see the lack of media interest on alternative energy sources as a chance to invest in companies whose day in the sun...could be just around the corner.

While I love to listen to energy savvy prognosticators, if there's one thing we can accurately predict, it's that things rarely go as smoothly as we like. Especially when we are not in the driver's seat.

We can't rely on geopolitical tensions and a decrease in demand to stay with us indefinitely. Should simmering tensions overseas suddenly boil over, you can expect energy prices to follow suit.

Sure they'll retrace at some point, but with penny stocks and the stock market in general, prices can rise and fall quite drastically in a very short period of time.

Remember, the stock market is all about marketing; penny stocks rise and fall on press releases, speeches, bad weather reports and the 6 o'clock news.

So, when is the best time to take advantage of some penny stocks? When they're being overlooked. One month ago, we were discussing alternative energy sources. No-one seems to be now.

Oil has its substitutes: biofuels, solar power, electrical automobiles, and renewable-source electricity generation. Other untested technologies also exist and are waiting to be developed further. But they cannot compete with oil as long as it's cheap.

Just one month ago President Bush marked Labor Day by promising to keep U.S. workers competitive in global markets and to reduce U.S. reliance on foreign oil. "Dependence on foreign oil jeopardized our capacity to grow," he noted.

Encouraging words yes, but hardly new. President Richard M. Nixon promised in 1971 to make the United States self-sufficient in energy by 1980. President Jimmy Carter promised in 1979 that the nation would "never again use more foreign oil than we did in 1977."

When times are tough, we look for alternatives. When times are rosy, we stick our head back into the oil sands.

Wall Street advanced Wednesday taking the Dow Jones industrial further into record high territory, as oil prices fell for a third straight day. The government surprised penny stock investors by reporting a rise in crude oil inventories.

Saudi Arabia also said the country wanted to keep oil prices low. "It looks like the petroleum data shows that there is more than enough oil to go around," mused one research analyst.

Oil prices settled at a seven-month low below $59 a barrel this week as rising global supplies, slack demand, and a mild Atlantic hurricane season forced geopolitical worries to the back burner.

"For the next three months, there is nothing in the fundamentals that is likely to support higher prices except an OPEC production cutback," predicted one energy analyst. Not surprisingly, OPEC's president said Thursday that the group is considering an emergency meeting to discuss the possibility of cutting output.

But fear not, Michael Lynch, President of Strategic Energy & Economic Research predicts that oil will fall to $45 per barrel by mid-2007 and could dip briefly into the $20s in 2008. Sometime next year, he expects we are going to see $1.95 price at the pumps.

While the idea of cheap oil is a godsend for most Americans, it does absolutely nothing to decrease our dependency on foreign oil. And by foreign oil, I'm referring to politically unstable areas such as the Middle East and Venezuela. For arguments sake, let's not refer to Canada's ubiquitous oil sands as "foreign".

Still, cheap oil puts the idea of alternative energy sources on the backburner...and out of the limelight for most investors. But insightful penny stock investors could see the lack of media interest on alternative energy sources as a chance to invest in companies whose day in the sun...could be just around the corner.

While I love to listen to energy savvy prognosticators, if there's one thing we can accurately predict, it's that things rarely go as smoothly as we like. Especially when we are not in the driver's seat.

We can't rely on geopolitical tensions and a decrease in demand to stay with us indefinitely. Should simmering tensions overseas suddenly boil over, you can expect energy prices to follow suit.

Sure they'll retrace at some point, but with penny stocks and the stock market in general, prices can rise and fall quite drastically in a very short period of time.

Remember, the stock market is all about marketing; penny stocks rise and fall on press releases, speeches, bad weather reports and the 6 o'clock news.

So, when is the best time to take advantage of some penny stocks? When they're being overlooked. One month ago, we were discussing alternative energy sources. No-one seems to be now.

Oil has its substitutes: biofuels, solar power, electrical automobiles, and renewable-source electricity generation. Other untested technologies also exist and are waiting to be developed further. But they cannot compete with oil as long as it's cheap.

The DOW Nears Record High-What Does That Mean

Those weren't trumpets proclaiming the Second Coming...just analysts sounding off about the DOW Jones.

On Thursday, Wall Street surged higher, carrying the Dow Jones Industrial to 11,718.45; its highest close this year and its second-highest close on record. Just 4.53 points away from its record high close of 11,722.98 on January 14, 2000.

Positive economic data and stable interest rates helped buoy a growing sense of optimism among investors. Investor enthusiasm was also bolstered by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond that showed the region's economy strengthened this month.

It also didn't hurt that crude oil futures briefly dipped below $60 a barrel on Monday. Oil prices have fallen by more than 20% since the July peak above $78 a barrel; thanks in large part to rising global inventories.

While positive economic data is a good sign for penny stock investors, why should you care that the DOW Jones neared an all-time high. And what does it mean that the DOW hit 11,718.45?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an index of the stock market. And it's calculated by taking the prices of 30 of the largest companies in the United States, often called 'blue chips'. While the Dow is the most frequently used index, there are several other market indications such as Standard & Poors (S&P) 500 Index.

The Dow adds the prices of these 30 stocks together; they take the sum of all the prices and multiply it by (as one economist notes) a 'fudge factor' to take into account stock splits and changes in the index.

A 'fudge factor' is used because, from time to time, they change the membership in the Index. For example, if a company disappears in a merger or if they decide that another company is more representative, then they need to change the fudge factor.

Despite all the mergers and changes over time, the 'fudge factor' helps keep the index comparable from one day to the next.

What does it mean when the Dow hits a new milestone or encroaches in on a previous high? It basically means that investors are putting their money where their mouth is and voting with their wallet. And they think the United States economy is doing well.

Stock prices, whether they're penny stocks or blue chips, are often considered a leading indicator of economic behavior. After all, investors invest in the stock market when they expect the economy to do well and when they expect companies to be earning lots of money.

For better or worse, there is also a psychological factor at play here too. Yes, people buy more when they think the economy is doing well. At the same time, penny stock prices can be skittish because stocks prices are based on people's expectations of what future earnings should look like.

Right now investors are in a good mood. But the crowd psychology can change overnight if news comes out that makes investors think that the world is going to be different than what they thought it was going to be.

One market strategist said he doesn't see the rise in stocks as being short-lived given that the three-week run-up has been based on a range of events.

Another market strategist said he doesn't expect the stock market's gains will last. "I would preach a little caution here," he noted.

And being cautious isn't always a bad thing. I'm always amazed at how aggressively some penny stock investors jump in when the markets are going up. Clambering for a seat on the bandwagon seems more risky to me than getting in when prices are down.

Those weren't trumpets proclaiming the Second Coming...just analysts sounding off about the DOW Jones.

On Thursday, Wall Street surged higher, carrying the Dow Jones Industrial to 11,718.45; its highest close this year and its second-highest close on record. Just 4.53 points away from its record high close of 11,722.98 on January 14, 2000.

Positive economic data and stable interest rates helped buoy a growing sense of optimism among investors. Investor enthusiasm was also bolstered by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond that showed the region's economy strengthened this month.

It also didn't hurt that crude oil futures briefly dipped below $60 a barrel on Monday. Oil prices have fallen by more than 20% since the July peak above $78 a barrel; thanks in large part to rising global inventories.

While positive economic data is a good sign for penny stock investors, why should you care that the DOW Jones neared an all-time high. And what does it mean that the DOW hit 11,718.45?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an index of the stock market. And it's calculated by taking the prices of 30 of the largest companies in the United States, often called 'blue chips'. While the Dow is the most frequently used index, there are several other market indications such as Standard & Poors (S&P) 500 Index.

The Dow adds the prices of these 30 stocks together; they take the sum of all the prices and multiply it by (as one economist notes) a 'fudge factor' to take into account stock splits and changes in the index.

A 'fudge factor' is used because, from time to time, they change the membership in the Index. For example, if a company disappears in a merger or if they decide that another company is more representative, then they need to change the fudge factor.

Despite all the mergers and changes over time, the 'fudge factor' helps keep the index comparable from one day to the next.

What does it mean when the Dow hits a new milestone or encroaches in on a previous high? It basically means that investors are putting their money where their mouth is and voting with their wallet. And they think the United States economy is doing well.

Stock prices, whether they're penny stocks or blue chips, are often considered a leading indicator of economic behavior. After all, investors invest in the stock market when they expect the economy to do well and when they expect companies to be earning lots of money.

For better or worse, there is also a psychological factor at play here too. Yes, people buy more when they think the economy is doing well. At the same time, penny stock prices can be skittish because stocks prices are based on people's expectations of what future earnings should look like.

Right now investors are in a good mood. But the crowd psychology can change overnight if news comes out that makes investors think that the world is going to be different than what they thought it was going to be.

One market strategist said he doesn't see the rise in stocks as being short-lived given that the three-week run-up has been based on a range of events.

Another market strategist said he doesn't expect the stock market's gains will last. "I would preach a little caution here," he noted.

And being cautious isn't always a bad thing. I'm always amazed at how aggressively some penny stock investors jump in when the markets are going up. Clambering for a seat on the bandwagon seems more risky to me than getting in when prices are down.

The Mark Is Selected-The Fix Is In-Sting Underway

Trevor showed up at an open house party held by a local Realtor, Mary, for a new homebuyer. Several neighbors had dropped in for the welcoming event. A friend of the Title Company who had closed the loan for the new homeowner had invited Trevor to the gathering, as he was new in town and had stopped at the Title Company making inquires about future purchase business. Mary peeking out the window witnesses a sharply dressed middle aged man probably in his late 30s she surmised driving a brand new Mercedes. Upon entering, Trevor was dripping in bling with a huge Rolex watch, a heavy gold chain on his wrist and tailored suit that looked very expensive dressed out with a fine silk tie and a gold ring with an onyx setting bordered with small diamonds. It was a rare sight to see someone with French cuff links and a pleated white shirt. The light shinned off his carefully trimmed jet-black hair with a light amount of hair gel while showing good contrast with a deep tan.

Mary noted that he was somewhat handsome man over six feet tall with a slight northeaster accent. He almost looked out of place but had an electric smile and a warm manner. There were about 20 people at the party. Introductions were made and Trevor indicated that he was involved in real estate investments. As small clusters of people gathered in various areas of the dining room and kitchen each sampling the bounty of passing dishes Trevor made his way from each group making small talk and further discussing the benefits of real estate investing with each. Betty Jane listening to the discussion appeared to be in deep thought. Finally, Betty Jane, a recent divorcee, asked Trevor if it was a good time to invest. Trevor turned his sharp focus in Betty Jane’s direction. Betty Jane was a friend of the new homebuyer and had used the same Realtor and Title closer on her loan and purchase twelve months ago. She had a comfort level with the professionals in the room. Betty Jane finally indicated to Trevor that she had recently became interested in finding property that would give good cash flow over something other than she was getting in CDs at the bank. Trevor engaged her further. A lengthy discussion followed. Numbers and information was exchanged. The game was on.

Betty Jane had excellent credit and was a professional marketing manager in her own right and had assets in the bank as well as a full investment portfolio which was just barely going sideways with the recent market climate. She wasn’t losing any money, but she wasn’t making much either. While at work Trevor called to make small talk and inquire as to the depth of Betty Jane’s commitment to find a good investment property.

A week passed and Trevor called Betty Jane to indicate that he might have something on the radar in the way of a stellar investment but would check it out fully before bothering her with anything that would not be in her best interest.

A few days later, Trevor called to say he had found a property but after doing a careful due diligence found the property had a termite problem. Likewise the owner wasn’t forthcoming about a settling problem of unstable soil in the neighbors house which could effect the for sale property so he rejected that possibility but was still looking for other opportunities. Trevor explained that he ran in different investment circles and was able to locate properties with extremely motivated seller’s who would listen to offers. Trevor’s stock began to rise.

A week later, Trevor called Betty Jane regarding an incredible deal that he had found and wanted to show the property to her with the listing Realtor. Since this was an exclusive property other Realtors were not being invited to sell it. The property was vacant and needed some improvements to bring it up to the neighborhood standards but had great square footage and otherwise in good structural condition. Betty Jane saw the potential and many of the homes in the area were selling in excess of $400,000.

Trevor showed up at an open house party held by a local Realtor, Mary, for a new homebuyer. Several neighbors had dropped in for the welcoming event. A friend of the Title Company who had closed the loan for the new homeowner had invited Trevor to the gathering, as he was new in town and had stopped at the Title Company making inquires about future purchase business. Mary peeking out the window witnesses a sharply dressed middle aged man probably in his late 30s she surmised driving a brand new Mercedes. Upon entering, Trevor was dripping in bling with a huge Rolex watch, a heavy gold chain on his wrist and tailored suit that looked very expensive dressed out with a fine silk tie and a gold ring with an onyx setting bordered with small diamonds. It was a rare sight to see someone with French cuff links and a pleated white shirt. The light shinned off his carefully trimmed jet-black hair with a light amount of hair gel while showing good contrast with a deep tan.

Mary noted that he was somewhat handsome man over six feet tall with a slight northeaster accent. He almost looked out of place but had an electric smile and a warm manner. There were about 20 people at the party. Introductions were made and Trevor indicated that he was involved in real estate investments. As small clusters of people gathered in various areas of the dining room and kitchen each sampling the bounty of passing dishes Trevor made his way from each group making small talk and further discussing the benefits of real estate investing with each. Betty Jane listening to the discussion appeared to be in deep thought. Finally, Betty Jane, a recent divorcee, asked Trevor if it was a good time to invest. Trevor turned his sharp focus in Betty Jane’s direction. Betty Jane was a friend of the new homebuyer and had used the same Realtor and Title closer on her loan and purchase twelve months ago. She had a comfort level with the professionals in the room. Betty Jane finally indicated to Trevor that she had recently became interested in finding property that would give good cash flow over something other than she was getting in CDs at the bank. Trevor engaged her further. A lengthy discussion followed. Numbers and information was exchanged. The game was on.

Betty Jane had excellent credit and was a professional marketing manager in her own right and had assets in the bank as well as a full investment portfolio which was just barely going sideways with the recent market climate. She wasn’t losing any money, but she wasn’t making much either. While at work Trevor called to make small talk and inquire as to the depth of Betty Jane’s commitment to find a good investment property.

A week passed and Trevor called Betty Jane to indicate that he might have something on the radar in the way of a stellar investment but would check it out fully before bothering her with anything that would not be in her best interest.

A few days later, Trevor called to say he had found a property but after doing a careful due diligence found the property had a termite problem. Likewise the owner wasn’t forthcoming about a settling problem of unstable soil in the neighbors house which could effect the for sale property so he rejected that possibility but was still looking for other opportunities. Trevor explained that he ran in different investment circles and was able to locate properties with extremely motivated seller’s who would listen to offers. Trevor’s stock began to rise.

A week later, Trevor called Betty Jane regarding an incredible deal that he had found and wanted to show the property to her with the listing Realtor. Since this was an exclusive property other Realtors were not being invited to sell it. The property was vacant and needed some improvements to bring it up to the neighborhood standards but had great square footage and otherwise in good structural condition. Betty Jane saw the potential and many of the homes in the area were selling in excess of $400,000.

NRI Investments In India

In India investors from all over the world are reaping the benefits of its developing stage, consistently growing economy and recent run up in Indian Stocks, Real Estate India. In all this there are sections of investors who are either NRI (Non Resident Indian) or of Indian Origin and they also want to reap the benefit of being Indian or of Indian Origin.

The recent declaration of reforms/ relaxations for such stream of investors by Indian government are boosting NRIs remittance and Investment interest in india.

NRIs want to speculate and are eager to invest in India either because of necessity or because as their parents or close relatives might live in India and they want to provide them a source of monthly income.

In the proposed Real Estate Mutual Funds to be launched, SEBI (Stock Exchange Bureau of India) and Reserve Bank of India will bring forth a blueprint for same in India soon. Moreover REMFs requires a favorable tax system, regulatory and legal system.

Presently for certain classes of domestic investors real estate participation is possible through Venture capital until REMFs come up full fledged in market to invest.

NRIs are looking forward to invest in mutual funds as well as REMF (Real Estate Mutual Funds) that would surely give them appreciation, either in form of Indian currency or source of income to their relatives in India.

In India investors from all over the world are reaping the benefits of its developing stage, consistently growing economy and recent run up in Indian Stocks, Real Estate India. In all this there are sections of investors who are either NRI (Non Resident Indian) or of Indian Origin and they also want to reap the benefit of being Indian or of Indian Origin.

The recent declaration of reforms/ relaxations for such stream of investors by Indian government are boosting NRIs remittance and Investment interest in india.

NRIs want to speculate and are eager to invest in India either because of necessity or because as their parents or close relatives might live in India and they want to provide them a source of monthly income.

In the proposed Real Estate Mutual Funds to be launched, SEBI (Stock Exchange Bureau of India) and Reserve Bank of India will bring forth a blueprint for same in India soon. Moreover REMFs requires a favorable tax system, regulatory and legal system.

Presently for certain classes of domestic investors real estate participation is possible through Venture capital until REMFs come up full fledged in market to invest.

NRIs are looking forward to invest in mutual funds as well as REMF (Real Estate Mutual Funds) that would surely give them appreciation, either in form of Indian currency or source of income to their relatives in India.

The Gifts of Debt

Debt is both a curse and a gift. Debt can ruin you. Debt can also set you free to create a life of abundance. How is it possible that debt can have such different effects? In the theaters of ancient Greece, actors wore masks to represent tragedy or comedy. Debt also wears two masks. One face is familiar to us. It kicks us when we are down, squeezes us when we are broke, hounds us when we can't pay. It doesn't take much imagination to recognize this face of debt. This type of debt robs people of their lives. This debt can and does ruin people.

This face of debt is particularly acute at this time of year. January is the month when many people open up credit card bills and wonder how they will pay for the Christmas gifts they bought on credit. It doesn't take much imagination to outline all of the ways that debt can ruin lives.

Yet, debt has another face. This face of debt can be a great gift to those who recognize it and use it well. Why? Debt allows you to take advantage of someone else's money to buy something you could not afford to buy. Debt allows you to do and be and have what you could not do on your own.

Let's start with mortgages for houses. Few people can afford to buy houses with their own money. You can probably buy a cartload of groceries, a meal at a nice restaurant, and some new clothes by pulling cash out of your wallet. But when you want to buy a house, how many people have enough money in their checking accounts to be able to buy houses for hundreds of thousands of dollars?

What is the solution? You take out a mortgage. A mortgage is a just a fancy word for debt. You borrow money to buy your house. And because of this mortgage debt, you have a house you can call your own.

What else does debt give you? Debt puts college in reach for millions of people who could not afford to pay tuition up front.

Debt also allows you to start a business, using someone else's money, when you don't have enough money of your own.

I can imagine that you might be thinking: Banks and lenders are making a profit on all of this debt. And besides, you are paying dearly to borrow the money. What about the interest rates? What about the endless fees? What about the banks that overcharge? All of this true. Banks and credit card companies can be downright usurious in their charges, especially for anyone who gets in trouble and falls behind in payments.

And it is also true that debt can be a great gift because it gives you a start. You borrow money to buy a house you could not afford to buy without it. You borrow money to start a business when you don't have enough to get started. You start school you could not have started without the borrowed money. These are only a few examples of the gifts of debt.

Consider this. The only reason you have debt is because someone with money believes that you will repay the money. And with the money, you are able to do something you could not otherwise afford that will change your life for the better.

Debt has two faces. You can also choose what face you will wear in front of debt. You can wear the face of fear. You can be angry at your creditors and upset with yourself, or you can put on the face of gratitude that someone trusted you enough to loan you money for you to have and create and be what you could not have or create or be with your own money.
Debt is both a curse and a gift. Debt can ruin you. Debt can also set you free to create a life of abundance. How is it possible that debt can have such different effects? In the theaters of ancient Greece, actors wore masks to represent tragedy or comedy. Debt also wears two masks. One face is familiar to us. It kicks us when we are down, squeezes us when we are broke, hounds us when we can't pay. It doesn't take much imagination to recognize this face of debt. This type of debt robs people of their lives. This debt can and does ruin people.

This face of debt is particularly acute at this time of year. January is the month when many people open up credit card bills and wonder how they will pay for the Christmas gifts they bought on credit. It doesn't take much imagination to outline all of the ways that debt can ruin lives.

Yet, debt has another face. This face of debt can be a great gift to those who recognize it and use it well. Why? Debt allows you to take advantage of someone else's money to buy something you could not afford to buy. Debt allows you to do and be and have what you could not do on your own.

Let's start with mortgages for houses. Few people can afford to buy houses with their own money. You can probably buy a cartload of groceries, a meal at a nice restaurant, and some new clothes by pulling cash out of your wallet. But when you want to buy a house, how many people have enough money in their checking accounts to be able to buy houses for hundreds of thousands of dollars?

What is the solution? You take out a mortgage. A mortgage is a just a fancy word for debt. You borrow money to buy your house. And because of this mortgage debt, you have a house you can call your own.

What else does debt give you? Debt puts college in reach for millions of people who could not afford to pay tuition up front.

Debt also allows you to start a business, using someone else's money, when you don't have enough money of your own.

I can imagine that you might be thinking: Banks and lenders are making a profit on all of this debt. And besides, you are paying dearly to borrow the money. What about the interest rates? What about the endless fees? What about the banks that overcharge? All of this true. Banks and credit card companies can be downright usurious in their charges, especially for anyone who gets in trouble and falls behind in payments.

And it is also true that debt can be a great gift because it gives you a start. You borrow money to buy a house you could not afford to buy without it. You borrow money to start a business when you don't have enough to get started. You start school you could not have started without the borrowed money. These are only a few examples of the gifts of debt.

Consider this. The only reason you have debt is because someone with money believes that you will repay the money. And with the money, you are able to do something you could not otherwise afford that will change your life for the better.

Debt has two faces. You can also choose what face you will wear in front of debt. You can wear the face of fear. You can be angry at your creditors and upset with yourself, or you can put on the face of gratitude that someone trusted you enough to loan you money for you to have and create and be what you could not have or create or be with your own money.